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Growing the Diversity of Propulsion Systems
by Dr. Hans-Joachim Esch
Technical discussions with automotive engineers today always lead to one major question: When and how will electric mobility be implemented in the market?
From our point of view, pure battery-powered cars will clearly not be completely covering the market by 2020. Numerous facts speak against this: First, there is the problem of high cost, then the availability of the necessary infrastructure and, last but not least, all the raw materials needed for the many batteries wouldnt be available in such a short time. In other words, the choice of propulsion systems is becoming bigger and bigger.
But, how about in 20, 30 or 40 years time? This depends largely on which CO2 reduction goals are to be reached in the future. A study conducted by McKinsey & Company says that to reduce global warming by two degrees, the CO2 produced by cars will have to be reduced to a level of about 20 to 40 grams per kilometer. This would be just a third of the threshold we are actually targeting for 2020, which would be revolutionary since it could not be achieved by optimizing existing powertrains as is the case at present. It would call for a complete re-think. It would probably necessitate the use of fuel cells or pure electric mobility. It is too early to say whether this will be achievable or not.
In the meantime, we will see various stages of hybrid drive systems as an intermediate step. Hybridization has a lot of potential for specialized suppliers because the combination of electric motor and internal combustion engine is an extremely complicated process requiring a lot of regulation and control.
And also for the future development of conventional engines, again, there is a big choice which is becoming more and more varied. Todays fuels gasoline and diesel will not disappear completely from the market. However, admixtures will become increasingly important and, in the more distant future, 100 percent regenerative fuels like second generation bio-fuels. In addition, available gases that are largely burnt away now could possibly be used. I actually think this makes sense.
And thankfully, development is never quite at the end. Even 125 years after the first automobile, developments are still ongoing and I think that competitive pressure resulting from electro mobility will give rise to even stronger optimization efforts in the field of drive technology.
As I see it, there are two fundamental directions: for diesel engines, with development being driven by the desire to reduce NOx and particulates. Diesel engines have always had relatively good fuel consumption properties. The situation with gasoline engines is quite the opposite. They feature good properties in terms of conventional emissions NOx, HC, and CO but their fuel consumption behavior needs to be improved. Legislation on CO2 reduction is offering an incentive to spend money on such activities since this prevents OEMs from having to pay penalties.
So besides exhaust turbocharging in gasoline engines as one of the key technology drivers and trends in the years to come, we see a very high potential in the domain of variable valve control because we are convinced this is one of the most effective and efficient ways of further reducing fuel consumption. Therefore, in 2010 we acquired the rights to the fully variable valve control system UniValve, which is a purely mechanical, robust, and reliable system. We are now bringing it to full-scale series production maturity expecting fuel consumption and CO2 reduction potentials of up to 10 percent in charged engines, too.
All development directions offer excellent potential, especially for the supplier industry, and it is up to us to make a pertinent contribution.
Dr. Hans-Joachim Esch is Head of Research and Technology of Neckarsulm-based automotive supplier KSPG AG
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Growing the Diversity of Propulsion Systems
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