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Kelley Predicts 900,000 Cars For January, 13.3 Million For the Year – Edmunds Thinks Kelley Is Wrong
We must be going into the last week of the month: The sales forecasts are beginning to arrive. In January, some 900,000 cars should change hands, 10 percent more than January 2011, but a whopping 30 percent below December. GM will be the only major automaker with a minus, both before the growth number and the market share.
This is the prediction of Kelley Blue Book. Kelley expects 2012 to bring slight, but not earthshaking gains. Kelley thinks the U.S. will be a 13.3 million unit market this year. Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst at Kelley says:
"Our analysts have produced a regression model that explores unemployment, housing, consumer confidence and seasonal patterns to assist with our sales forecast for the year. Given current market conditions and our expectations for 2012, we believe sales will continue to improve at a conservative pace in 2012."
For January, this is what Kelley thinks automakers will report (or something close to it … 
| Sales Volume | Market Share | |||||
| Manufacturer | Jan-12 | Jan | YOY % | Jan-12 | Jan-11 | YOY% |
| 2011 | ||||||
| General Motors | 169,200 | 178,887 | -5.40% | 18.80% | 21.80% | -3.00% |
| Ford Motor Company | 144,900 | 126,981 | 14.10% | 16.10% | 15.50% | 0.60% |
| Toyota Motor Corp. | 121,500 | 115,856 | 4.90% | 13.50% | 14.10% | -0.60% |
| Chrysler Group | 93,600 | 70,993 | 31.80% | 10.40% | 8.70% | 1.70% |
| American Honda Motor Co. | 81,000 | 76,268 | 6.20% | 9.00% | 9.30% | -0.30% |
| Hyundai-Kia | 80,100 | 65,002 | 23.20% | 8.90% | 7.90% | 1.00% |
| Nissan North America | 79,200 | 71,847 | 10.20% | 8.80% | 8.80% | 0.00% |
| Total: | 900,000 | 819,394 | 9.80% | - | - | - |
Edmunds currently expects a weaker January of around 795k, and a SAAR of 12.1m. Edmunds.com Vice Chairman Jeremy Anwyl says:
"January's sales decline suggests that the 'mini bubble' of deferred sales from last summer is already deflating. Edmunds.com expected the market to start moving in this direction, but the news might come as a surprise to some in the industry who thought that the industry's strong finish in 2011 would continue unabated into 2012."
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Kelley Predicts 900,000 Cars For January, 13.3 Million For the Year – Edmunds Thinks Kelley Is Wrong
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