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February Predicted To Be Up 6.3%, GM To Get It On The Chin
Forecasters with the benefit of real-time sales data predict that February sales will be up slightly to 1,050,000 units, lifting the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) to 13.8 million, up 6.4 percent from February 2011. This according to new projections by Kelley Blue Book. GM is predicted as a big loser.
KBB sales projection, February 2012
| Sales Volume | Market Share | |||||
| Manufacturer | 12-Feb | 11-Feb | YOY% | 12-Feb | 11-Feb | YOY |
| General Motors | 195,000 | 207,028 | -5.80% | 18.50% | 20.80% | -2.40% |
| Ford | 165,000 | 156,232 | 5.60% | 15.60% | 15.70% | -0.10% |
| Toyota Motor Corp. | 147,000 | 141,846 | 3.60% | 13.90% | 14.30% | -0.40% |
| Chrysler Group | 119,000 | 95,102 | 25.10% | 11.30% | 9.60% | 1.70% |
| American Honda | 100,000 | 98,059 | 2.00% | 9.50% | 9.90% | -0.40% |
| Nissan | 93,000 | 92,370 | 0.70% | 8.80% | 9.30% | -0.50% |
| Hyundai-Kia | 88,000 | 76,339 | 15.30% | 8.30% | 7.70% | 0.60% |
| Volkswagen | 40,000 | 29,315 | 36.40% | 3.80% | 3.00% | 0.80% |
| Total (incl non-shown) | 1,056,000 | 993,535 | 6.30% | - | - | - |
February's winners are seen as Chrysler, Volkswagen, and Hyundai-Kia, in that order. GM is looking with worried eyes at the report. It predicts a 5.8 percent decrease in sales for GM. In a rising market, this would translate to a hefty 2.4 percent decrease in market share if Kelley is right.
KBB segment projection, February 2012
| Sales Volume | Market Share | |||||
| Segment | 12-Feb | 11-Feb | YOY% | 12-Feb | 11-Feb | YOY |
| Mid-Size Cars | 188,000 | 172,081 | 9.3% | 17.8% | 17.3% | 0.5% |
| Compact Car | 148,000 | 146,282 | 1.2% | 14.0% | 14.7% | -0.7% |
| Compact Crossover | 121,000 | 113,556 | 6.6% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| Full-Size Pickup Truck | 118,000 | 109,677 | 7.6% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 0.1% |
| Subcompact Car | 63,000 | 48,714 | 29.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 1.1% |
| Total (incl non-shown) | 1,056,000 | 993,535 | 6.3% | - | - | - |
Not much change in the segments, except for a rise of subcompact sales. The subcompact segment remains small.
Kelley Blue Book, which had called January correctly, thinks that the annualized sales pace will slow after April, when pent-up demand is satisfied. Says Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst of automotive insights for Kelley Blue Book:
"From a pure volume perspective, in the months ahead sales will continue to exceed last year's figures, but this year there may be more volatility from month-to-month than in 2011.Sales were remarkably flat from May through November 2011, due to the production woes faced by Toyota and Honda. Now that they are producing vehicles at full capacity, a return to traditional seasonal patterns is likely through 2012."
If you are looking for deals, look for them amongst the domestics. Dealers of General Motors, Ford and Chrysler have more than 80 days' supply of vehicles available on average. Toyota, Honda and Nissan are slightly up to more than 50 days' supply. Hyundai and Kia are short of cars with only a 30 days' supply of vehicles on average. Domestics spent more than $1,000 per unit more on incentives in January compared to their Japanese and Korean counterparts, a trend that will continue in February.
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February Predicted To Be Up 6.3%, GM To Get It On The Chin
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